by Alison Mitchell, Co-Executive Director, New Jersey Conservation Foundation
For the climate conscious among us, concerns about the coastline in this state we’re in ramp up with the arrival of tropical storm season each August. You don’t have to be a worry wart to wonder how our beloved shore towns will fare in the face of sea level rise or to view disaster films involving floods as reasonable versions of our future.
How Asbury Park, Point Pleasant, and other Jersey Shore towns will be faring in the next two and a half decades may not be top of mind for most of us on a calm sunny day in August. But the Union of Concerned Scientists is looking ahead, and they’ve recently made a compelling case that everyone else should be, too. In June, the nonprofit advocacy group issued a new report, “Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience.”
Tidal flooding is threatening the infrastructure of towns and cities along both U.S. coasts, the scientists say. Between now and 2050, according to their report, “climate change–driven sea level rise will expose more than 1,600 critical buildings and services to disruptive flooding at least twice per year.” By “critical,” the group does not mean your favorite boardwalk taco stand (though that is at risk as well).
They mean the buildings and services that millions of people – especially people already disadvantaged by racism, discrimination, and pollution – depend upon. That includes places like fire and police stations, schools, public housing, and wastewater treatment plants.
“The picture is bleak,” the report says, outlining a scenario backed by hard data: “Fire stations experiencing monthly flood days, saltwater regularly shorting out the power in entire neighborhoods, thousands of residents of subsidized housing being stranded by high tides, and industrial-polluted water seeping into land and soil and spreading toxins throughout residential areas.”
New Jersey is second only to Louisiana in the number of coastal “assets” – like schools – at risk. Scarier still, the scientists may have been conservative in calculating the risks. Flooding in their analysis is driven by changes in sea level and tidal heights alone. Wave dynamics, storm surge, precipitation, river drainage, and groundwater dynamics can and do contribute to coastal flooding too, they note. Some low-lying areas are so vulnerable that in addition to the Department of Environmental Protection’s Blue Acres Program, which buys properties most at risk, we need additional tools to move people out of harm’s way, to help them retreat from areas most frequently inundated.
The forecasting of a grim future for our coastline doesn’t mean it’s a foregone conclusion. Capt. Alek Modjeski, the habitat restoration program director for the American Littoral Society, a nonprofit whose mission includes protecting the coast, sees the local fallout of climate change every day.
“Because of the geographic location of New Jersey, we’re taking the brunt of things here,” he acknowledged. But he said he feels “energized” because communities are getting proactive in their approach to sea level rise. “We get phone calls all the time from residents and municipalities. They’re asking, ‘What are our options?'”
One option, he said, is a living shoreline, a nature-based solution that provides land stabilization and protects against erosion while also creating or enhancing living space. The Littoral Society recently partnered with the shore town of Neptune on just such a project. Sand was added to elevate the shoreline, a dune was constructed, logs made of coconut fibers were installed to trap sediment and raise the marsh, and old pipes were replaced to prevent water backflow.
“The things that are happening to our shoreline are happening pretty expeditiously and pretty exponentially,” said Modjeski, who goes by Capt. Al. “But we have a chance to reduce the rate of erosion if we take a programmatic approach, if we build things over time.”
“Things can change,” Capt. Al added. The Union of Concerned Scientists thinks so, too, though their assessment is alarming.
“How much infrastructure will be in jeopardy late this century will depend heavily on the choices countries make about global heat-trapping emissions,” its report concludes. “Policymakers and public and private decision makers must take immediate, science-based steps to safeguard critical infrastructure and achieve coastal resilience.”
The challenges are great because planning in New Jersey happens mostly at the municipal level. We have 564 municipalities. Regional approaches to planning, and projects that span municipal and county lines, are critical to achieving effective solutions. Flooding and storms don’t follow human-drawn boundaries. The State Legislature just held a hearing to discuss the threats to our coast and consider possible solutions.
The next time you walk along an ocean boulevard to your favorite ice cream store, imagine the Atlantic being up to your belt buckle at high tide. Drastic reductions in fossil fuel use and switching as rapidly as possible to carbon-neutral energy sources will lessen sea level rise. There is no longer any reason, nor time, to delay.
To read the Union of Concerned Scientists’ report “Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience,” go to https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/looming-deadlines-coastal-resilience
You can find out more about the work of the American Littoral Society at https://www.littoralsociety.org/
And for information about preserving New Jersey’s land and natural resources, visit the New Jersey Conservation Foundation website at www.njconservation.org or contact me at info@njconservation.org.
